Thu, Dec 8, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Nashville Predators 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 04 | 17 | 210 | 11 | 422 |
| CBJ | 110 | 18 | 16 | 00 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:42CBJJeff CarterAssists: Vinny Prospal, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 10:49CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Jared Boll, Nikita Nikitin · Backhand, 0.29 xG0–2
- P2 13:10NSHMike FisherAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Francis Bouillon · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 1:24CBJDerek DorsettAssists: Marc Methot, James Wisniewski · Snap, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 18:24NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Shea Weber, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–3
- P3 19:47NSHSergei KostitsynPPAssists: Martin Erat, Ryan Suter · Deflected, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 1:45NSHColin WilsonGWGAssists: Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:04NSHFrancis Bouillon: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:04CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:52NSHFrancis Bouillon: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:54CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist6:45
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Halischuk – Spaling – Wilson4:18
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – Halischuk – Spaling5:39
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Wilson6:56
xG 0.34–0.31 (53%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Klein2:48
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Weber2:36
xG 0.06–0.03 (70%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber18:02
xG 0.51–0.61 (46%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestPahlsson – Umberger – Dorsett13:54
xG 0.51–0.07 (88%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Vermette – Brassard – Johansen10:53
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Letestu7:44
xG 0.06–0.04 (60%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Prospal – Nash – Carter15:17
xG 0.38–0.65 (37%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Nikitin20:07
xG 0.70–0.13 (85%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Johnson – Clitsome12:42
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Methot19:25
xG 0.65–0.77 (46%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).