Thu, Dec 8, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 2, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 14 | 09 | 110 | 223 |
| STL | 111 | 25 | 18 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:19STLChris PorterAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.46 xG0–1
- P1 14:31ANABobby RyanAssists: Teemu Selanne, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 7:39STLIan ColeAssists: Matt D'Agostini, Jamie Langenbrunner · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 18:14STLT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 3:17ANADevante Smith-PellyAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 19:14STLT.J. OshieENAssists: David Backes · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:58ANALuca Sbisa: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:12STLRoman Polak: Holding2 min
- P2 18:20STLRoman Polak: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00STLT.J. Oshie: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:37ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:37ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:37STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:37STLT.J. Oshie: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Arnott won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Ryan5:55
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Selanne – Ryan – Cogliano3:16
xG 0.17–0.18 (50%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Bonino – Smith-Pelly6:07
xG 0.03–0.10 (22%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Hagman – Getzlaf – Perry11:55
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Guenin11:14
xG 0.54–0.13 (80%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler19:08
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Lydman – Beauchemin3:21
xG 0.06–0.25 (18%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie12:50
xG 0.73–0.15 (83%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Langenbrunner – Porter – Sobotka4:09
xG 0.56–0.11 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – D'Agostini6:14
xG 0.21–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Nichol – Porter – Sobotka5:02
xG 0.16–0.22 (43%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Cole13:51
xG 0.41–0.08 (84%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo14:15
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Jackman – Polak18:28
xG 0.49–0.83 (37%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).