Fri, Dec 9, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Washington Capitals 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 112 | 18 | 228 |
| WSH | 16 | 212 | 17 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:33WSHDennis WidemanPPAssists: Mike Knuble, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 1:49WSHDennis WidemanPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Brooks Laich · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 12:52TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak, Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–2
- P2 18:50WSHNicklas BackstromPPGWGAssists: Dennis Wideman, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–3
- P3 13:16TORCody FransonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 18:41WSHBrooks LaichPPAssists: Dennis Wideman, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:35WSHJoel Ward: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 12:00TORJake Gardiner: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:22TORLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:22WSHJason Chimera: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:38TORMatt Frattin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 10:30WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:51TORColby Armstrong: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:12TORJoey Crabb: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:13TORJohn-Michael Liles: Interference2 min
- P3 17:46TORJoey Crabb: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:45TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:45WSHJohn Carlson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Halpern
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak11:55
xG 0.64–0.04 (95%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin12:05
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Steckel – Crabb – Dupuis5:08
xG 0.31–0.20 (60%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Connolly – Armstrong – Frattin8:29
xG 0.23–0.47 (32%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson10:58
xG 0.98–0.54 (65%)attempts 21–5goals 1–0
- Liles – Franson13:55
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Schenn – Gardiner12:15
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Ovechkin – Backstrom11:59
xG 0.94–0.28 (77%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Knuble – Perreault – Eakin5:15
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Laich9:40
xG 0.11–0.15 (41%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Halpern – Brouwer – Johansson11:04
xG 0.09–0.59 (14%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Orlov7:46
xG 0.71–0.24 (75%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Orlov6:19
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Wideman – Alzner2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).