Fri, Dec 9, 2011·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 08 | 210 | 225 |
| WPG | 219 | 212 | 06 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 5:04WPGEvander KaneAssists: Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 10:16WPGTim StapletonPPGWGAssists: Kyle Wellwood, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 11:28WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Evander Kane, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.17 xG0–4
- P3 8:24CARJustin FaulkAssists: Jaroslav Spacek, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 12:13CARBrandon SutterPPAssists: Tim Gleason, Jaroslav Spacek · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:25CARTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:25WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:16CARJussi Jokinen: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:19WPGChris Thorburn: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:55CARChad LaRose: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:18CARBryan Allen: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:07WPGBlake Wheeler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:42CARJustin Faulk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:46WPGRandy Jones: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:46CARChad LaRose: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:20WPGEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:36WPGCarl Klingberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Brent – Stewart2:09
xG 0.14–0.09 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brent – Staal – Stewart3:05
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- LaRose – Nodl – Sutter11:24
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Ruutu – Jokinen8:07
xG 0.07–0.24 (23%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpacek – Faulk14:21
xG 0.28–0.21 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Allen – Joslin11:32
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Gleason – McBain14:11
xG 0.59–1.75 (25%)attempts 14–20goals 0–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Little – Kane10:20
xG 1.82–0.51 (78%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Jaffray – Stapleton – Klingberg5:47
xG 0.35–0.04 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass9:01
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Wellwood – Ladd – Burmistrov8:31
xG 0.35–0.26 (58%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Byfuglien13:21
xG 1.73–0.28 (86%)attempts 21–7goals 1–0
- Stuart – Bogosian14:36
xG 0.80–0.43 (65%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
- Flood – Jones11:53
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).