Sat, Dec 10, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New York Rangers 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 015 | 29 | 29 | 433 |
| BUF | 09 | 112 | 012 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:34NYRCarl HagelinSHAssists: Steve Eminger, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 12:38BUFThomas VanekAssists: Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 18:51NYRRyan CallahanSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 3:02NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Martin Biron · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 17:26NYRMarian GaborikPPAssists: John Mitchell, Steve Eminger · Slap, 0.05 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:09BUFRobyn Regehr: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:18NYRCarl Hagelin: Interference2 min
- P1 16:51BUFThomas Vanek: Interference2 min
- P2 9:36NYRRyan Callahan: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:15NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Boarding2 min
- P3 9:36BUFZack Kassian: Holding2 min
- P3 15:35BUFDerek Roy: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Mitchell – Hagelin8:35
xG 0.33–0.09 (78%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Avery – Dubinsky – Prust2:38
xG 0.12–0.07 (61%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan7:51
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Richards – Dubinsky – Callahan6:10
xG 0.12–0.29 (30%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Stralman9:44
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh19:48
xG 0.55–0.77 (42%)attempts 15–23goals 0–0
- Eminger – Del Zotto13:58
xG 0.38–0.69 (36%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Stafford – Ennis10:32
xG 0.76–0.05 (94%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Szczechura10:22
xG 0.55–0.39 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Leino – Adam – Kassian10:22
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Stuart – McCormick – Ellis8:15
xG 0.05–0.30 (14%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – McNabb14:10
xG 0.79–0.38 (68%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
- Ehrhoff – Gragnani14:12
xG 0.59–0.43 (58%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Regehr – Sekera9:40
xG 0.13–0.15 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).