Sat, Dec 10, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Vancouver Canucks 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 29 | 111 | 18 | 428 |
| OTT | 09 | 16 | 010 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10VANAlexander EdlerPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 8:23VANRyan KeslerGWGAssists: Jannik Hansen, Mason Raymond · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 8:35VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.46 xG3–0
- P2 18:48OTTColin GreeningAssists: Jason Spezza, Brian Lee · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 16:30VANDale WeiseAssists: Aaron Rome · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–1
Penalties (18)
- P1 1:06OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:23VANHenrik Sedin: Holding2 min
- P1 15:30OTTNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:30VANDale Weise: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:25OTTChris Phillips: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:25VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:25VANKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:53OTTChris Neil: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:11OTTNick Foligno: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:20OTTPeter Regin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:05VANKeith Ballard: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:05OTTNick Foligno: Misconduct10 min
- P2 10:05OTTNick Foligno: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:32VANHenrik Sedin: Interference2 min
- P3 2:44VANMaxim Lapierre: Misconduct10 min
- P3 2:44VANMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:25VANAlexander Edler: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:02OTTBobby Butler: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Kesler – Hansen7:25
xG 0.52–0.07 (88%)attempts 8–2goals 1–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows9:55
xG 0.34–0.13 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Raymond – Weise2:33
xG 0.09–0.02 (84%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Sweatt – Weise2:48
xG 0.05–0.03 (67%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa12:53
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Ballard – Rome13:21
xG 0.22–0.05 (81%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Salo – Edler10:31
xG 0.57–0.85 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Michalek – Butler3:29
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Regin – Foligno5:31
xG 0.13–0.04 (74%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Neil – Condra – Smith9:27
xG 0.17–0.26 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Greening – Winchester – Butler3:25
xG 0.01–0.11 (10%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCowen – Rundblad2:05
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Lee – Cowen2:56
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Phillips – Rundblad6:48
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).