Sat, Dec 10, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Winnipeg Jets 1, Detroit Red Wings 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 09 | 012 | 130 |
| DET | 212 | 413 | 14 | 729 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Evander Kane · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 6:47DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Johan Franzen, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 14:56DETHenrik ZetterbergGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Niklas Kronwall · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 4:03DETJiri HudlerAssists: Johan Franzen, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 4:43DETChris ConnerAssists: Daniel Cleary, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–4
- P2 9:31DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Ian White · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
- P2 12:41DETDrew MillerAssists: Brad Stuart, Todd Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–6
- P3 1:12DETJiri HudlerAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–7
Penalties (5)
- P2 7:42WPGBryan Little: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:59DETTodd Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:59DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P2 16:43WPGMark Stuart: Interference2 min
- P2 18:52WPGNik Antropov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass10:58
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Ladd11:11
xG 0.68–0.71 (49%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Jaffray – Stapleton – Burmistrov9:58
xG 0.08–0.26 (24%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Little – Kane14:45
xG 0.35–0.80 (31%)attempts 11–16goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- Oduya – Byfuglien14:33
xG 0.23–0.35 (39%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
- Stuart – Bogosian18:23
xG 0.64–0.95 (40%)attempts 22–17goals 0–3
- Flood – Jones13:30
xG 0.23–0.67 (25%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Filppula – Hudler12:58
xG 0.91–0.48 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Cleary – Helm – Conner11:44
xG 0.48–0.24 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Miller – Abdelkader10:50
xG 0.16–0.21 (44%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen11:36
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Kronwall8:40
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson6:57
xG 0.37–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Lidstrom – White14:33
xG 0.66–0.47 (58%)attempts 19–11goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).