Sat, Dec 10, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Dallas Stars 2, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 17 | 19 | 012 | 228 |
| LAK | 08 | 110 | 09 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:35DALJamie BennPPAssists: Michael Ryder, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 13:58LAKBrad RichardsonSHAssists: Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 16:44DALTrevor DaleyGWGAssists: Tomas Vincour, Tom Wandell · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:55LAKKyle Clifford: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:31LAKKevin Westgarth: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:34LAKWillie Mitchell: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 11:34DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:12LAKJustin Williams: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:53DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min
- P1 18:41LAKJustin Williams: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:12DALAlex Goligoski: Holding2 min
- P2 6:43LAKKyle Clifford: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:05LAKJarret Stoll: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:42LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min
- P2 12:42DALMike Ribeiro: Diving2 min
- P3 8:13DALStephane Robidas: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:58LAKDrew Doughty: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00LAKDrew Doughty: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Loktionov won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Ott8:11
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Ryder – Eriksson – Benn9:30
xG 0.19–0.15 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Dowell – Wandell – Vincour5:40
xG 0.28–0.44 (39%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom11:33
xG 0.32–0.52 (38%)attempts 6–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSouray – Robidas12:08
xG 0.79–0.55 (59%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Daley – Grossmann9:48
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Larsen10:40
xG 0.11–0.56 (16%)attempts 5–20goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestHunter – Stoll – Richardson6:48
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Gagne – Williams – Loktionov9:25
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Fraser – Westgarth – Clifford2:05
xG 0.02–0.15 (13%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Brown – Penner – Kopitar9:54
xG 0.19–0.54 (27%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty11:27
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Doughty3:08
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Voynov3:48
xG 0.35–0.18 (67%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).