Tue, Dec 13, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 15 | 312 | 425 |
| PIT | 16 | 012 | 08 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:55PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: James Neal, Brooks Orpik · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 16:01DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Todd Bertuzzi · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 5:15DETJohan FranzenPPGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 15:36DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Chris Conner, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 19:54DETDaniel ClearyENAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.70 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:40DETJohan Franzen: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:32PITEvgeni Malkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 1:02DETNicklas Lidstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:51PITMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:57DETJiri Hudler: Holding2 min
- P3 12:58DETJiri Hudler: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Helm – Conner9:23
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen10:36
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Miller – Abdelkader6:50
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler12:16
xG 0.20–0.53 (28%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Kindl11:53
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Lidstrom – White17:58
xG 0.51–0.52 (50%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall14:46
xG 0.23–0.44 (35%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Neal12:13
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Cooke – Dupuis – Vitale2:59
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Cooke – Vitale3:24
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Kennedy – Staal6:19
xG 0.22–0.26 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Picard – Despres10:30
xG 0.14–0.10 (57%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Martin – Engelland15:44
xG 0.50–0.49 (51%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Orpik – Niskanen14:54
xG 0.38–0.41 (49%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).