Tue, Dec 13, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 3, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 010 | 215 | 332 |
| MTL | 26 | 015 | 38 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:50NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: PA Parenteau · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 9:15MTLAndrei KostitsynAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 13:28MTLMathieu DarcheAssists: Petteri Nokelainen, Yannick Weber · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 0:31MTLErik ColePPAssists: David Desharnais, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 5:18NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Brian Rolston, Mike Mottau · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 11:28NYIJohn TavaresAssists: PA Parenteau, David Ullstrom · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–3
- P3 13:45MTLPetteri NokelainenGWGAssists: Lars Eller, Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.01 xG3–4
- P3 19:09MTLHal GillENAssists: David Desharnais, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.49 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:40MTLLars Eller: Interference2 min
- P1 4:56NYIMark Streit: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:24NYIPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:10MTLHal Gill: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:52NYIDavid Ullstrom: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:05MTLLouis Leblanc: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:05NYIPA Parenteau: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:36NYIMatt Martin: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Wallace – Martin6:28
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 13–3goals 0–1
- Rolston – Bailey – Ullstrom8:25
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:28
xG 0.44–0.42 (52%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner9:26
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMottau – Reese11:24
xG 0.87–0.07 (93%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Streit – Hamonic13:55
xG 1.19–0.49 (71%)attempts 15–17goals 2–0
- Staios – Jurcina11:20
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 10–6goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDarche – Eller – Leblanc3:53
xG 0.23–0.16 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty11:34
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Darche – Nokelainen – Eller5:14
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn11:57
xG 0.39–1.55 (20%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Gill – Campoli2:54
xG 0.05–0.04 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Gorges – Subban15:59
xG 0.31–0.53 (36%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Gill – Diaz10:45
xG 0.39–0.70 (36%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).