Tue, Dec 13, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 1, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 117 | 013 | 136 |
| NSH | 118 | 017 | 110 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:43NSHMatt HalischukAssists: Brian McGrattan, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 6:12CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Derek Smith · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 3:31NSHColin WilsonPPGWGAssists: Craig Smith, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:53CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:41CGYTom Kostopoulos: Interference2 min
- P2 19:03NSHRoman Josi: Holding2 min
- P3 3:01CGYBrendan Morrison: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Morrison – Iginla – Jokinen8:24
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Comeau – Backlund10:16
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Morrison – Tanguay – Horak2:47
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan8:12
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarson – Brodie10:21
xG 0.96–0.37 (72%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Butler17:57
xG 0.64–0.52 (55%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
- Hannan – Smith15:28
xG 0.24–1.33 (16%)attempts 10–20goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Erat – Smith11:45
xG 1.14–0.32 (78%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist14:40
xG 0.56–0.50 (53%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Smithson – Halischuk6:54
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Spaling – Wilson10:58
xG 0.46–1.04 (31%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Klein16:00
xG 0.50–0.10 (84%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Hillen – Josi11:07
xG 0.62–0.54 (53%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Suter – Weber21:01
xG 1.11–1.42 (44%)attempts 27–27goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).