Tue, Dec 13, 2011·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 1, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 115 | 013 | 135 |
| WPG | 010 | 19 | 18 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:39MINGuillaume LatendressePPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.59 xG1–0
- P2 8:37WPGZach BogosianUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 15:00WPGBryan LittlePPGWGAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:23MINGuillaume Latendresse: Interference2 min
- P1 18:52WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:33MINKyle Brodziak: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:49WPGChris Thorburn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:11WPGTanner Glass: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:19MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:19WPGTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:52MINNick Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:00MINClayton Stoner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 18:54WPGZach Bogosian: Boarding5 min
- P3 18:54WPGZach Bogosian: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Slater
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBouchard – Almond – Wellman8:04
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – Latendresse2:51
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Clutterbuck11:21
xG 0.25–0.19 (58%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – Gillies5:31
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Lundin13:11
xG 0.61–0.29 (67%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Zanon – Stoner10:38
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon13:51
xG 0.31–0.72 (30%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Fehr – Ladd4:33
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Jaffray – Stapleton – Klingberg3:15
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Wellwood – Ladd – Stapleton5:37
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass9:36
xG 0.17–0.22 (43%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Flood12:49
xG 0.65–0.26 (71%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Oduya – Byfuglien13:43
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Stuart – Bogosian13:20
xG 0.46–0.62 (42%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).