Tue, Dec 13, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
San Jose Sharks 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 27 | 19 | 03 | 1 | 330 |
| COL | 111 | 011 | 29 | 02 | 2 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:43COLStefan ElliottUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 3:16SJSJamie McGinnPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Michal Handzus · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 13:39SJSDan BoyleAssists: Joe Pavelski, Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 6:31COLDaniel WinnikAssists: Erik Johnson, Kyle Quincey · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 11:51COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Milan Hejduk, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 19:38SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. COL Milan Hejduk scored
- 2. SJS Michal Handzus stopped
- 3. COL Matt Duchene stopped
- 4. SJS Martin Havlat stopped
- 5. COL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
- 6. SJS Joe Pavelski scored
- 7. COL David Jones stopped
- 8. SJS Ryane Clowe stopped
- 9. COL Gabriel Landeskog scored
- 10. SJS Brad Winchester stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:46COLCody McLeod: Charging2 min
- P2 1:25COLTJ Galiardi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:44SJSMartin Havlat: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:44COLShane O'Brien: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:16SJSColin White: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWinchester – Murray – Desjardins7:13
xG 0.24–0.03 (88%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Mitchell12:29
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Marleau – Clowe – Couture6:43
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Handzus – Marleau – McGinn2:49
xG 0.01–0.04 (21%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Demers13:15
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- White – Vlasic2:10
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- White – Braun12:13
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Jones – Galiardi2:20
xG 0.20–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Winnik – Stastny – Duchene2:51
xG 0.17–0.04 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McClement – Jones – Winnik5:11
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Stastny – Galiardi – Duchene7:48
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Johnson12:48
xG 0.59–0.31 (66%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- O'Byrne – Quincey12:43
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda3:53
xG 0.13–0.09 (58%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).