Wed, Dec 14, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 011 | 210 | 17 | 03 | 2 | 431 |
| MIN | 02 | 210 | 116 | 02 | 0 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:19CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 10:48CHIMichael FrolikAssists: Marcus Kruger, Jamal Mayers · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 13:10MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Nick Johnson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 15:41MINMatt CullenAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Warren Peters · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 6:54CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Viktor Stalberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 14:56MINMikko KoivuAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Clayton Stoner · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MIN Matt Cullen stopped
- 2. CHI Jonathan Toews scored
- 3. MIN Dany Heatley stopped
- 4. CHI Patrick Kane scored
Penalties (6)
- P2 3:29CHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:29MINBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:06MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:20MINMatt Cullen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 17:37CHISteve Montador: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:01CHIDaniel Carcillo: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Bolland – Bickell8:06
xG 0.48–0.14 (77%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Stalberg – Toews – Kane15:50
xG 0.93–0.75 (56%)attempts 21–14goals 1–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Kruger10:07
xG 0.12–0.30 (29%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook21:51
xG 1.04–0.55 (65%)attempts 24–17goals 2–0
- Hjalmarsson – Leddy19:33
xG 0.75–0.81 (48%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Koivu – Powe15:03
xG 0.96–0.39 (71%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Cullen – Peters – Clutterbuck3:25
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – Gillies12:27
xG 0.28–0.18 (60%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Peters – Staubitz – Almond3:07
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Zidlicky – Stoner12:24
xG 0.59–0.56 (51%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Schultz – Lundin17:25
xG 0.27–0.50 (35%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
- Scandella – Spurgeon20:36
xG 0.58–0.95 (38%)attempts 13–28goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).