Wed, Dec 14, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Phoenix Coyotes 1, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 07 | 17 | 06 | 120 |
| ANA | 113 | 27 | 18 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:48ANARod PelleyAssists: Maxime Macenauer, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 1:07ANANiklas HagmanPPGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–2
- P2 7:31PHXMartin HanzalPPAssists: Ray Whitney, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 18:56ANANiklas HagmanAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 3:30ANAKyle PalmieriAssists: Bobby Ryan, Francois Beauchemin · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:58PHXAdrian Aucoin: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:00PHXShane Doan: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:34PHXAdrian Aucoin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:34ANALuca Sbisa: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:10ANAKyle Palmieri: Holding2 min
- P3 1:26PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P3 13:38ANABrandon McMillan: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Macenauer
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLangkow – Doan – Boedker12:03
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Torres – Bissonnette – Chipchura8:24
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal10:48
xG 0.14–0.38 (27%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Pyatt – Gordon – Korpikoski8:17
xG 0.12–0.37 (24%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle16:21
xG 0.54–0.25 (69%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Schlemko12:33
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Yandle2:03
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHagman – Getzlaf – Perry11:23
xG 0.78–0.15 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Gordon – Pelley – Macenauer9:14
xG 0.10–0.14 (41%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Selanne – Ryan – Cogliano10:59
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Beleskey – McMillan – Palmieri7:26
xG 0.02–0.35 (5%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Visnovsky16:27
xG 0.74–0.25 (75%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler3:57
xG 0.16–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Sbisa11:27
xG 0.22–0.31 (42%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).