Thu, Dec 15, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Vancouver Canucks 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 113 | 114 | 336 |
| CAR | 015 | 29 | 217 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:19VANKevin BieksaAssists: Chris Higgins, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 9:51VANMason RaymondAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 15:52CARDrayson BowmanAssists: Anthony Stewart, Jamie McBain · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 19:08CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Bryan Allen, Jussi Jokinen · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 0:37CARDrayson BowmanAssists: Chad LaRose, Brandon Sutter · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 6:12CARJaroslav SpacekPPGWGAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Tim Brent · Slap, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 8:40VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Henrik Sedin, Mason Raymond · Backhand, 0.25 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:33VANKeith Ballard: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:33VANAaron Rome: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:33VANManny Malhotra: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:33CARBryan Allen: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:33CARTuomo Ruutu: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:27VANMason Raymond: Interference2 min
- P1 15:10VANMaxim Lapierre: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:28VANAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:11CARTim Brent: Holding2 min
- P3 5:12VANKeith Ballard: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:12VANAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:20VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:20CARChad LaRose: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Malhotra
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Burrows – Raymond12:18
xG 1.36–0.50 (73%)attempts 25–9goals 2–1
- Higgins – Kesler – Hansen10:27
xG 0.82–0.60 (58%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Mancari – Hodgson – Weise4:31
xG 0.19–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa13:01
xG 1.27–0.79 (62%)attempts 23–11goals 2–2
- Alberts – Ballard9:29
xG 0.58–0.14 (80%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Edler2:43
xG 0.09–0.01 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Ruutu – Jokinen8:18
xG 0.72–0.20 (78%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Staal – Tlusty4:03
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Stewart – Bowman3:46
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- LaRose – Sutter – Bowman3:57
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Gleason2:14
xG 0.13–0.01 (91%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Gleason – McBain14:46
xG 0.86–0.77 (53%)attempts 14–19goals 1–2
- Allen – McBain2:27
xG 0.01–0.09 (8%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).