Thu, Dec 15, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Los Angeles Kings 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 017 | 09 | 215 | 241 |
| CBJ | 06 | 18 | 011 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:43CBJJeff CarterAssists: Vinny Prospal, Nikita Nikitin · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 4:33LAKDavis DrewiskeAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 8:12LAKDustin BrownGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Simon Gagne · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:06LAKSimon Gagne: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:28LAKJarret Stoll: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:58CBJJames Wisniewski: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:46CBJR.J. Umberger: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:34LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:54LAKAlec Martinez: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:54CBJRick Nash: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Penner – Loktionov3:01
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Williams – Stoll – Penner9:19
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Gagne – Brown – Kopitar14:16
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 18–12goals 2–1
- Fraser – Westgarth – Clifford3:40
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Martinez13:27
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Greene – Drewiske12:17
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Doughty17:39
xG 0.42–0.39 (51%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Brassard – Letestu6:28
xG 0.14–0.08 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Johansen2:29
xG 0.05–0.06 (43%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Prospal – Nash – Carter13:57
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
- Pahlsson – Umberger – Johansen8:02
xG 0.14–0.18 (43%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tyutin – Nikitin15:37
xG 0.40–0.44 (48%)attempts 14–19goals 1–2
- Wisniewski – Methot15:23
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
- Clitsome – Moore10:10
xG 0.08–0.38 (17%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).