Thu, Dec 15, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 210 | 16 | 425 |
| MTL | 012 | 38 | 011 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:07PHIMax TalbotAssists: Jakub Voracek, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 5:02MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Max Pacioretty, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 5:48PHIHarry ZolnierczykAssists: Zac Rinaldo, Matt Carle · Backhand, 0.36 xG2–1
- P2 13:24MTLLouis LeblancAssists: Mike Blunden, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 18:10PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Matt Carle, Matt Read · Wrist, 0.44 xG3–2
- P2 19:44MTLErik ColePPAssists: Max Pacioretty, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 8:08PHIAndrej MeszarosGWGAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Matt Carle · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:08PHIKevin Marshall: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:08MTLPetteri Nokelainen: Holding2 min
- P1 12:39MTLTomas Kaberle: Interference2 min
- P1 17:01PHIMarc-Andre Bourdon: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:21PHIJakub Voracek: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:50PHIBraydon Coburn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:32MTLLouis Leblanc: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:21PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:06MTLMichael Cammalleri: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:19PHISean Couturier: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:55PHIMatt Carle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:00MTLDavid Desharnais: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:46PHISean Couturier: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:50MTLTomas Plekanec: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:29PHIMax Talbot: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – van Riemsdyk – Simmonds2:16
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Zolnierczyk – Couturier2:03
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brière – Simmonds – Read5:35
xG 0.03–0.06 (30%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Jagr – Brière – Hartnell2:32
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Meszaros6:39
xG 1.11–0.20 (84%)attempts 12–5goals 3–1
- Meszaros – Marshall3:34
xG 0.47–0.03 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Carle – Bourdon7:05
xG 0.16–0.14 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Darche – Kostitsyn – Eller2:03
xG 0.03–0.03 (48%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Darche – Nokelainen – Eller6:29
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty9:09
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn7:31
xG 0.22–0.57 (28%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban9:45
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Kaberle – Emelin5:57
xG 0.36–0.43 (46%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Gill – Campoli10:58
xG 0.14–0.49 (22%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).