Thu, Dec 15, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Detroit Red Wings 3, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 215 | 013 | 340 |
| NSH | 18 | 15 | 28 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:15DETTomas HolmstromPPAssists: Ian White, Pavel Datsyuk · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 10:09NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Craig Smith, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 10:03DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, Todd Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 11:30DETNicklas LidstromAssists: Ian White, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.01 xG3–1
- P2 17:22NSHJordin TootooAssists: Kevin Klein, Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 15:36NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Martin Erat · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 18:24NSHShea WeberGWGAssists: Jordin Tootoo · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:27NSHRyan Suter: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:11NSHJerred Smithson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:14DETJimmy Howard: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen15:15
xG 0.58–0.27 (68%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler14:15
xG 0.77–0.82 (49%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Holmstrom – Abdelkader – Emmerton7:22
xG 0.23–0.45 (33%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Cleary – Miller – Helm10:39
xG 0.34–0.75 (32%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – White21:48
xG 1.28–0.31 (81%)attempts 34–8goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Kindl13:42
xG 0.32–0.77 (29%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall16:38
xG 0.59–1.06 (36%)attempts 15–14goals 0–3
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Spaling – Wilson12:44
xG 0.90–0.44 (67%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Legwand – Erat – Smith12:02
xG 0.83–0.46 (64%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Smithson – Wilson – Halischuk6:19
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist16:06
xG 0.50–0.74 (40%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHillen – Josi11:40
xG 0.73–0.34 (68%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber21:41
xG 0.67–0.69 (49%)attempts 15–22goals 1–1
- Bouillon – Klein20:20
xG 1.17–1.22 (49%)attempts 16–24goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).