Fri, Dec 16, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 313 | 112 | 436 |
| OTT | 09 | 510 | 15 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:25OTTColin GreeningAssists: Jason Spezza, Jared Cowen · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 1:35PITSteve SullivanAssists: Arron Asham, Joe Vitale · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 2:04OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 6:45OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Jason Spezza, Brian Lee · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 11:07PITMatt NiskanenPPAssists: Steve Sullivan, Chris Kunitz · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 12:14PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Steve Sullivan, James Neal · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P2 13:20OTTJared CowenAssists: Nick Foligno, Erik Karlsson · Deflected, 0.05 xG3–4
- P2 19:54OTTZenon KonopkaPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jared Cowen · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–5
- P3 12:23OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Jared Cowen · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–6
- P3 18:58PITChris KunitzAssists: Simon Despres, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:27PITMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:27PITArron Asham: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:27OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:20OTTKaspars Daugavins: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:00OTTChris Neil: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:06OTTDaniel Alfredsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:05OTTMatt Carkner: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:09PITPascal Dupuis: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:50PITAlexandre Picard: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:55PITJames Neal: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 14:52PITSimon Despres: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dupuis won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – MacIntyre – Tangradi3:11
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Asham – Vitale7:46
xG 0.47–0.27 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Cooke – Dupuis – Kennedy9:30
xG 0.59–0.61 (49%)attempts 17–10goals 0–2
- Kunitz – Malkin – Neal13:10
xG 0.33–0.51 (39%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPicard – Despres7:35
xG 0.92–0.15 (86%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Picard – Niskanen2:24
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Orpik – Engelland4:52
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Spezza – Greening10:03
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 6–9goals 3–0
- Neil – Regin – Foligno4:43
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith11:13
xG 0.56–1.04 (35%)attempts 14–23goals 0–1
- Konopka – Winchester – Butler6:46
xG 0.02–0.59 (3%)attempts 2–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lee – Rundblad2:01
xG 0.12–0.14 (47%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Carkner – Lee2:01
xG 0.04–0.10 (31%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Phillips – Carkner12:08
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).