Sat, Dec 17, 2011·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Anaheim Ducks 3, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 210 | 011 | 115 | 336 |
| WPG | 210 | 213 | 18 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:54WPGKyle WellwoodAssists: Nik Antropov, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
- P1 6:19WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Toby Enstrom · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 14:34ANANiklas HagmanAssists: Teemu Selanne, Sheldon Brookbank · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 18:26ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Dan Ellis · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 0:31WPGAlexander BurmistrovAssists: Evander Kane, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 18:20WPGAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Kyle Wellwood · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 2:49WPGZach BogosianAssists: Chris Thorburn · Slap, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 10:26ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Teemu Selanne · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:58ANACorey Perry: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:08WPGMark Stuart: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:08WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:08ANAGeorge Parros: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:32ANALubomir Visnovsky: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:06ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:06WPGMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:18WPGChris Thorburn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:29WPGChris Thorburn: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:27WPGNik Antropov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Cogliano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGordon – Bonino – Palmieri8:40
xG 0.58–0.23 (72%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Selanne – Getzlaf – Perry6:02
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Hagman – Getzlaf – Perry10:18
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Selanne – Ryan – Cogliano8:54
xG 0.63–0.54 (54%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Fowler8:38
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Brookbank – Fowler10:13
xG 0.65–0.42 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Brookbank – Sbisa2:15
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Kane – Burmistrov8:11
xG 0.82–0.24 (77%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Ladd11:07
xG 0.74–0.57 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Fehr – Stapleton – Burmistrov2:02
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Little – Kane4:24
xG 0.04–0.25 (14%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Bogosian14:35
xG 0.81–0.60 (57%)attempts 14–21goals 3–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien15:31
xG 0.38–0.48 (44%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Oduya14:32
xG 0.57–0.94 (38%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).