Sat, Dec 17, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Washington Capitals 1, Colorado Avalanche 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 011 | 18 | 07 | 126 |
| COL | 19 | 112 | 07 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:49COLCody McLeodAssists: Shane O'Brien, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 13:09WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 14:03COLErik JohnsonGWGAssists: Milan Hejduk, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:03WSHMathieu Perreault: Holding2 min
- P1 13:03WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:03COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:32COLJay McClement: Holding2 min
- P2 10:25COLShane O'Brien: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:48WSHJeff Halpern: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:26COLTJ Galiardi: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:46COLJan Hejda: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Ovechkin – Backstrom9:25
xG 0.49–0.12 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Knuble – Hendricks – Perreault2:27
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson2:34
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Laich10:37
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wideman4:03
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Erskine – Wideman9:26
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Orlov9:16
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Galiardi – Malone9:45
xG 0.31–0.03 (91%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog12:28
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Van Der Gulik – McLeod – Brophey3:11
xG 0.01–0.01 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Winnik – Stastny – Duchene12:31
xG 0.36–0.53 (40%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Elliott14:48
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Johnson15:55
xG 0.59–0.37 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda14:27
xG 0.19–0.60 (24%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).