Sat, Dec 17, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 2, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 17 | 09 | 225 |
| SJS | 19 | 114 | 114 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:36SJSMartin HavlatAssists: Michal Handzus, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 17:16EDMJordan EberleAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 5:28EDMRyan JonesSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 14:33SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 6:11SJSPatrick MarleauPPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P2 4:58EDMEric Belanger: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:09EDMTaylor Hall: Interference2 min
- P2 10:23SJSMartin Havlat: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:49EDMTheo Peckham: Holding2 min
- P2 12:49SJSMartin Havlat: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:56EDMLadislav Smid: Interference2 min
- P3 5:59EDMTheo Peckham: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:07SJSJason Demers: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:06
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Smyth – Hemsky – Gagner13:19
xG 0.20–0.41 (33%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Hordichuk – Eager – Lander4:15
xG 0.03–0.26 (9%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Belanger – Horcoff – Jones9:20
xG 0.19–0.51 (27%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Peckham12:20
xG 0.23–0.12 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Smid13:00
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Whitney – Potter13:05
xG 0.52–0.75 (41%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Mitchell11:14
xG 0.32–0.08 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Handzus – Havlat – McGinn5:05
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Winchester – Desjardins – McLaren3:57
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Clowe – Couture11:43
xG 0.49–0.50 (50%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Vlasic16:30
xG 0.81–0.38 (68%)attempts 23–14goals 1–0
- Burns – Braun3:05
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- White – Braun13:02
xG 0.31–0.34 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).