Sun, Dec 18, 2011·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 2, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 03 | 08 | 213 | 224 |
| CHI | 19 | 28 | 18 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:23CHISteve MontadorAssists: Jamal Mayers, Viktor Stalberg · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 5:15CHINiklas HjalmarssonAssists: Marian Hossa, Marcus Kruger · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 14:55CHIPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 2:35CGYOlli JokinenPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Curtis Glencross · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 11:17CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Dave Bolland · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 16:25CGYCurtis GlencrossPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
Penalties (18)
- P1 3:34CGYDerek Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:28CHIMarian Hossa: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:25CGYRene Bourque: Checking from behind5 min
- P1 15:25CGYRene Bourque: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 16:51CHIMarcus Kruger: Interference2 min
- P2 0:37CGYLee Stempniak: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:16CGYChris Butler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:29CHIDave Bolland: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:26CHIBryan Bickell: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P3 1:26CGYCory Sarich: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:26CHIBryan Bickell: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:26CHIBryan Bickell: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:36CGYTJ Brodie: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:01CGYJarome Iginla: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 16:00CHIMarcus Kruger: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 17:11CHIMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:11CGYDerek Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:11CHIViktor Stalberg: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Jackman – Backlund2:18
xG 0.10–0.02 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Tanguay2:34
xG 0.08–0.02 (78%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Comeau – Backlund3:39
xG 0.09–0.11 (46%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan3:48
xG 0.06–0.12 (34%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Butler12:15
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Butler – Smith3:12
xG 0.01–0.13 (5%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Sarich – Brodie6:54
xG 0.07–0.23 (23%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Sharp – Kruger5:53
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Frolik5:54
xG 0.06–0.07 (50%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Morin6:40
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Leddy4:39
xG 0.14–0.08 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Leddy5:01
xG 0.14–0.09 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Montador – Hjalmarsson6:03
xG 0.15–0.15 (51%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).