Sun, Dec 18, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, St. Louis Blues 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 113 | 211 | 18 | 432 |
| STL | 212 | 08 | 414 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:06CBJDerek MacKenzieAssists: Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 12:34STLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Matt D'Agostini · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 13:29STLT.J. OshieAssists: David Backes · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 4:00CBJDerek DorsettAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Nikita Nikitin · Deflected, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 19:58CBJMark LetestuPPAssists: R.J. Umberger, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 0:58STLAlexander SteenAssists: T.J. Oshie, Carlo Colaiacovo · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 6:43STLJason ArnottAssists: David Perron, Jamie Langenbrunner · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 12:08STLAlex PietrangeloGWGAssists: David Backes · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–5
- P3 15:51CBJDerick BrassardAssists: R.J. Umberger, Fedor Tyutin · Tip-in, 0.17 xG4–5
- P3 19:15STLPatrik BerglundENAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, David Perron · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:31STLDavid Backes: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:31CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:15STLDavid Backes: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:07STLRoman Polak: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:07STLScott Nichol: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:07CBJDane Byers: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:07CBJDerek MacKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:28STLKevin Shattenkirk: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:20STLRoman Polak: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 2:49CBJR.J. Umberger: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:45STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:45CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Nash – Brassard11:24
xG 1.21–0.32 (79%)attempts 13–9goals 1–2
- MacKenzie – Byers – Boll5:03
xG 0.47–0.03 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Prospal – Carter – Letestu12:29
xG 0.77–0.90 (46%)attempts 15–14goals 0–3
- Pahlsson – Vermette – Dorsett8:46
xG 0.18–0.41 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Nikitin15:11
xG 2.04–0.30 (87%)attempts 27–13goals 3–2
- Methot – Moore2:26
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Moore11:49
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Langenbrunner – D'Agostini7:23
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie10:58
xG 0.81–0.59 (58%)attempts 13–8goals 3–0
- Arnott – D'Agostini – Stewart2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Berglund – Perron2:53
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk16:34
xG 0.87–0.80 (52%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Jackman – Polak2:03
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo14:02
xG 0.60–1.00 (37%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).