Mon, Dec 19, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 09 | 117 | 235 |
| BOS | 19 | 111 | 111 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:13BOSBenoit PouliotAssists: Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 13:26MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Travis Moen · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 2:42BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P3 14:14BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Patrice Bergeron · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 18:46MTLErik ColeAssists: David Desharnais, Max Pacioretty · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:50BOSNathan Horton: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:24MTLJosh Gorges: Interference2 min
- P2 16:23MTLLouis Leblanc: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 5:44BOSZach Hamill: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Nokelainen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMoen – Cammalleri – Plekanec12:18
xG 0.36–0.17 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Darche – Nokelainen – Blunden10:23
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty9:54
xG 0.62–0.70 (47%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – Eller – Leblanc8:06
xG 0.23–0.57 (29%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Campoli11:07
xG 0.46–0.34 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Gill – Subban5:02
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Subban2:07
xG 0.13–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Peverley – Pouliot10:43
xG 0.71–0.19 (79%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin13:03
xG 0.68–0.46 (60%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Hamill3:56
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Paille – Horton – Krejci6:13
xG 0.32–0.32 (51%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk16:20
xG 0.56–0.49 (53%)attempts 20–17goals 1–1
- Corvo – Seidenberg11:51
xG 0.51–0.50 (51%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Ference – McQuaid9:40
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).