Mon, Dec 19, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Los Angeles Kings 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 114 | 116 | 010 | 02 | 1 | 342 |
| TOR | 115 | 04 | 110 | 04 | 0 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:54LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Drew Doughty, Rob Scuderi · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 11:01TORJohn-Michael LilesAssists: Tyler Bozak · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 14:58LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Simon Gagne, Anze Kopitar · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 2:56TORMatt FrattinAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolay Kulemin · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
- 2. LAK Jarret Stoll stopped
- 3. TOR Matt Frattin stopped
- 4. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
- 5. TOR Joffrey Lupul stopped
- 6. LAK Dustin Brown scored
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:19LAKKevin Westgarth: Holding2 min
- P1 7:57TORJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:57LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:47TORJoffrey Lupul: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:29LAKTrevor Lewis: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:47TORLuke Schenn: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:47LAKMatt Greene: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:23TORDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:49LAKKevin Westgarth: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:05TORLuke Schenn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:23LAKJustin Williams: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:44TORCody Franson: Interference2 min
- P2 18:12LAKDustin Brown: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:09TORJohn-Michael Liles: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFraser – Richardson – Lewis2:55
xG 0.48–0.02 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gagne – Brown – Kopitar10:54
xG 0.57–0.47 (55%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Williams – Stoll – Penner9:32
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Williams – Penner – Loktionov2:27
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty11:06
xG 0.91–0.37 (71%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Johnson14:21
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 25–16goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Greene2:18
xG 0.02–0.02 (54%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Lupul – Kessel6:31
xG 0.91–0.51 (64%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Connolly – Crabb – MacArthur5:06
xG 0.17–0.03 (84%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Frattin4:17
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Crabb – Frattin – Bozak4:03
xG 0.09–0.06 (58%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson10:21
xG 1.22–0.41 (75%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Schenn4:09
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Liles – Franson10:42
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).