Tue, Dec 20, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Rangers 4, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 04 | 17 | 310 | 421 |
| NJD | 112 | 08 | 011 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:51NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Petr Sykora · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 17:28NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Derek Stepan, Marian Gaborik · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P3 4:45NYRMarian GaborikGWGAssists: Artem Anisimov, Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 14:42NYRCarl HagelinSHAssists: Stu Bickel · Snap, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 19:56NYRMarian GaborikENAssists: Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:03NYRMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03NJDCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:47NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:47NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:47NJDEric Boulton: Misconduct10 min
- P1 1:47NYRRyan Callahan: Misconduct10 min
- P1 5:48NYRJohn Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:02NJDDainius Zubrus: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 10:22NYRDan Girardi: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:24NJDDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:24NYRStu Bickel: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:03NYRRyan McDonagh: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fedotenko won the faceoff against Sestito
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Anisimov – Stepan11:24
xG 0.79–0.45 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Boyle – Mitchell – Hagelin3:59
xG 0.16–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Callahan – Hagelin6:21
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Mitchell – Dubinsky4:27
xG 0.05–0.16 (24%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBickel – Erixon9:36
xG 0.23–0.08 (74%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Stralman – McDonagh2:03
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh19:43
xG 0.90–0.82 (52%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSykora – Zubrus – Zajac12:42
xG 0.88–0.37 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Clarkson – Carter – Tedenby8:59
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Boulton – Janssen – Sestito2:10
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique14:09
xG 0.48–0.90 (35%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Taormina11:33
xG 0.72–0.52 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Salvador – Larsson19:43
xG 0.51–0.46 (53%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Foster12:38
xG 0.57–0.70 (45%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).