Tue, Dec 20, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
Nashville Predators 1, Washington Capitals 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 04 | 08 | 19 | 121 |
| WSH | 211 | 03 | 29 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:42WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Karl Alzner, John Carlson · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 15:51WSHNicklas BackstromGWGAssists: Roman Hamrlik · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 4:40NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Shea Weber · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 10:21WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 13:46WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Dennis Wideman, Marcus Johansson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:12NSHBlake Geoffrion: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:52WSHAlexander Semin: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:17WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:25WSHKarl Alzner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:27WSHJason Chimera: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:19NSHCraig Smith: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:16WSHJoel Ward: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Spaling – Wilson7:51
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Legwand – Kostitsyn – Smith3:36
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Kostitsyn – Spaling2:06
xG 0.05–0.02 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Hornqvist5:59
xG 0.06–0.10 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Blum10:05
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Bouillon – Blum4:15
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Weber13:59
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Ovechkin – Brouwer10:18
xG 0.46–0.34 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Semin – Backstrom – Johansson12:53
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 14–14goals 2–1
- Chimera – Halpern – Ward10:54
xG 0.06–0.07 (47%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Knuble – Hendricks – Perreault5:16
xG 0.04–0.16 (18%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson16:40
xG 0.53–0.18 (74%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Wideman – Orlov14:37
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Hamrlik – Carlson2:03
xG 0.05–0.04 (55%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).