Tue, Dec 20, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Phoenix Coyotes 2, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 17 | 19 | 06 | 222 |
| FLA | 07 | 19 | 012 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:53PHXRay WhitneyPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Radim Vrbata · Snap, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 9:02PHXRadim VrbataPPGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Ray Whitney · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 17:42FLABrian CampbellAssists: Kris Versteeg, Jason Garrison · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:18PHXMartin Hanzal: Elbowing2 min
- P1 3:45FLAMatt Bradley: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:54FLAMike Santorelli: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:23PHXDavid Schlemko: Interference2 min
- P1 18:09FLAShawn Matthias: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:57FLAKris Versteeg: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:33FLAMarco Sturm: Interference2 min
- P2 1:51PHXShane Doan: Interference2 min
- P2 7:27FLAErik Gudbranson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 1:24PHXMichal Rozsival: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:56FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:35PHXMichal Rozsival: Penalty shot net displaced0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kennedy won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestTorres – Chipchura – O'Reilly6:15
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Whitney – Langkow – Doan3:07
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal4:15
xG 0.04–0.02 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Boedker2:35
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Ekman-Larsson11:38
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle6:13
xG 0.06–0.08 (43%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Morris – Ekman-Larsson2:49
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg10:57
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Sturm – Bradley – Kennedy3:54
xG 0.14–0.06 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Kopecky – Matthias4:18
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Barch – Santorelli – Thomas4:12
xG 0.11–0.10 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Garrison13:11
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson8:45
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Campbell – Kulikov4:12
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).