Tue, Dec 20, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Minnesota Wild 1, Calgary Flames 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 113 | 06 | 011 | 130 |
| CGY | 111 | 113 | 06 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:47CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Jarome Iginla, Chris Butler · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 6:10MINPierre-Marc BouchardAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Matt Cullen · Backhand, 0.35 xG1–1
- P2 6:02CGYJarome IginlaGWGAssists: Derek Smith, Olli Jokinen · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:24MINBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:24CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:57MINJarod Palmer: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:33CGYTom Kostopoulos: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:33MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:54MINMarek Zidlicky: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:22CGYCory Sarich: Elbowing2 min
- P3 17:28CGYOlli Jokinen: Interference2 min
- P3 19:47CGYOlli Jokinen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPeters – Clutterbuck – Palmer9:54
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – Powe11:37
xG 0.38–0.24 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Cullen – Heatley – Bouchard15:00
xG 0.69–0.64 (52%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Ortmeyer – Brodziak – Staubitz2:38
xG 0.01–0.05 (14%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Stoner11:38
xG 0.71–0.13 (84%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Scandella – Spurgeon14:44
xG 0.79–0.39 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Schultz – Zanon2:43
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Jokinen – Glencross13:03
xG 1.05–0.69 (60%)attempts 18–13goals 2–1
- Morrison – Kostopoulos – Jackman7:19
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Comeau – Byron – Horak8:46
xG 0.12–0.26 (31%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Stempniak – Backlund13:02
xG 0.32–0.78 (29%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Brodie14:04
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Hannan – Smith16:04
xG 0.80–0.88 (48%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Butler17:43
xG 0.54–1.00 (35%)attempts 14–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).