Wed, Dec 21, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Phoenix Coyotes 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 18 | 16 | 25 | 419 |
| CAR | 114 | 212 | 011 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:18PHXRay WhitneyPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Martin Hanzal · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 9:21CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 5:49CARAndreas NodlAssists: Jaroslav Spacek · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 12:15CARJiri TlustyAssists: Justin Faulk, Jay Harrison · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 13:24PHXCal O'ReillyAssists: David Rundblad, Kyle Chipchura · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 4:20PHXRostislav KleslaAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Daymond Langkow · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 10:48PHXLauri KorpikoskiGWGAssists: Derek Morris, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:27CARJay Harrison: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 7:17PHXDerek Morris: Interference2 min
- P1 17:32PHXBoyd Gordon: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:52PHXDerek Morris: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:29PHXMartin Hanzal: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:29CARJussi Jokinen: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Langkow – Doan3:39
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Langkow – Doan – Korpikoski4:52
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Gordon – Boedker3:03
xG 0.05–0.01 (86%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Gordon – Korpikoski5:33
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Klesla – Schlemko16:52
xG 0.46–0.45 (51%)attempts 10–22goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle15:31
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rundblad12:52
xG 0.50–0.65 (44%)attempts 13–17goals 1–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Tlusty – Sutter9:24
xG 0.36–0.07 (84%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Stewart – Nodl – Nash7:05
xG 0.28–0.03 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- LaRose – Staal – Bowman9:38
xG 0.65–0.51 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Staal – Nash – Bowman2:01
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – McBain14:44
xG 0.44–0.29 (61%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Allen – Spacek11:17
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Harrison – Faulk17:08
xG 0.53–0.65 (45%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).