Wed, Dec 21, 2011·United Center, Chicago
Montréal Canadiens 1, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 111 | 03 | 121 |
| CHI | 07 | 212 | 39 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:35MTLAndrei KostitsynPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Raphael Diaz · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 11:36CHIAndrew BrunetteAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 11:57CHIPatrick SharpGWGAssists: Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 10:29CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Bryan Bickell · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 18:43CHIJonathan ToewsENAssists: Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–4
- P3 19:48CHIBryan BickellAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Brandon Pirri · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:56CHIViktor Stalberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:49MTLTomas Plekanec: Delaying game2 min
- P2 4:42CHIMichael Frolik: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 8:15MTLMike Blunden: Holding2 min
- P2 18:39CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty13:11
xG 0.36–0.37 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Kostitsyn – Eller – Leblanc8:30
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Darche – Nokelainen – Blunden9:17
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
- Moen – Cammalleri – Plekanec13:28
xG 0.29–0.68 (30%)attempts 8–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Diaz11:49
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Diaz2:33
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Campoli14:04
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 7–14goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMayers – Frolik – Morin6:45
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Pirri12:19
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Brunette – Toews – Kane13:12
xG 0.51–0.32 (62%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Stalberg8:24
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Leddy17:46
xG 0.83–0.26 (76%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook17:09
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- O'Donnell – Montador12:04
xG 0.33–0.11 (74%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).