Wed, Dec 21, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 215 | 16 | 19 | 430 |
| DAL | 110 | 09 | 012 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56DALMichael RyderAssists: Loui Eriksson, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 8:30PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 11:36PHIWayne SimmondsPPGWGAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 8:00PHIJaromir JagrPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 5:22PHIAndrej MeszarosAssists: Claude Giroux, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 10:51DALVernon Fiddler: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 13:51DALMichael Ryder: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:40PHIZac Rinaldo: Interference2 min
- P2 5:37PHIScott Hartnell: Interference2 min
- P2 7:39DALSheldon Souray: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:21DALBrenden Morrow: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:21PHIMarc-Andre Bourdon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 14:47PHITom Sestito: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:47DALAdam Burish: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:41DALJake Dowell: Interference2 min
- P2 18:14DALMark Fistric: Elbowing2 min
- P2 18:14DALBrenden Morrow: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:09PHIMarc-Andre Bourdon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Hartnell – Giroux7:22
xG 0.71–0.14 (84%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Sestito – Rinaldo – Zolnierczyk6:02
xG 0.05–0.09 (34%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Brière – van Riemsdyk – Simmonds10:57
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Read8:35
xG 0.32–0.71 (31%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn8:03
xG 0.44–0.30 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Lilja – Coburn2:57
xG 0.05–0.06 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Carle – Meszaros2:33
xG 0.08–0.10 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom10:48
xG 0.50–0.14 (78%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Ott10:09
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Burish – Dowell – Wandell6:12
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Ryder – Eriksson – Benn9:28
xG 0.14–0.64 (18%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFistric – Goligoski14:38
xG 0.73–0.25 (74%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Daley – Grossmann12:42
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Souray – Pardy12:50
xG 0.54–0.76 (41%)attempts 19–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).