Thu, Dec 22, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 2, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 18 | 18 | 226 |
| NYR | 17 | 28 | 110 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:53NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Stu Bickel, Martin Biron · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 0:18NYIPA ParenteauPPAssists: Mark Streit, Matt Moulson · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 7:52NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Artem Anisimov · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 15:25NYRMichael Del ZottoGWGAssists: Brandon Prust, Anton Stralman · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 8:29NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Mark Streit, Frans Nielsen · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 18:27NYRJohn MitchellENAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 17:11NYIMicheal Haley: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:11NYRMichael Del Zotto: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:24NYRRyan McDonagh: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:26NYRBrad Richards: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:52NYIJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:19NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:19NYRStu Bickel: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:13NYINino Niederreiter: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:31NYITim Wallace: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:31NYRStu Bickel: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:31NYRStu Bickel: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:31NYRBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:31NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:49NYIPA Parenteau: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestWallace – Bailey – Martin8:45
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner9:12
xG 0.40–0.54 (43%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Reasoner – Haley – Niederreiter7:04
xG 0.07–0.23 (23%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares14:28
xG 0.12–0.65 (15%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Streit – Jurcina14:42
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
- MacDonald – Hamonic18:42
xG 0.50–0.67 (43%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Mottau – Eaton9:49
xG 0.22–0.58 (28%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Anisimov – Stepan11:39
xG 0.89–0.11 (89%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Richards – Callahan – Hagelin11:57
xG 0.49–0.16 (76%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Boyle – Mitchell – Dubinsky10:21
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Rupp – Fedotenko – Prust3:45
xG 0.03–0.13 (20%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh18:54
xG 0.75–0.25 (75%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Stralman – Del Zotto16:20
xG 0.76–0.38 (67%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Bickel – Erixon7:40
xG 0.07–0.33 (18%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).