Thu, Dec 22, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 010 | 116 | 28 | 01 | 335 |
| OTT | 16 | 08 | 29 | 13 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:58OTTChris NeilPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Daniel Alfredsson · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 6:37FLAMichal RepikPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Kris Versteeg · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 7:38OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPAssists: Chris Neil · Tip-in, 0.24 xG1–2
- P3 9:05FLAShawn MatthiasPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Mike Santorelli · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 9:43OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Colin Greening · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 18:48FLATomas KopeckyAssists: Kris Versteeg, Matt Bradley · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–3
- OT 2:02OTTBobby ButlerGWGAssists: Kyle Turris, Jared Cowen · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:17OTTSergei Gonchar: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:44FLAShawn Matthias: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:30OTTBobby Butler: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:01OTTNick Foligno: Charging5 min · PPG
- P2 3:01OTTNick Foligno: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 7:07FLADmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:07OTTChris Phillips: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:07FLAKrys Barch: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:00OTTErik Condra: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthias won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarch – Santorelli – Repik6:46
xG 0.30–0.04 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Thomas – Dadonov3:07
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Fleischmann – Versteeg2:07
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Versteeg – Matthias2:18
xG 0.06–0.06 (49%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJovanovski – Ellerby11:45
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Campbell – Kulikov2:11
xG 0.09–0.01 (89%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov13:26
xG 0.31–0.28 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKonopka – Turris – Butler2:03
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Neil – Daugavins – Smith11:39
xG 0.20–0.27 (42%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Condra – Turris4:03
xG 0.01–0.09 (10%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Greening13:18
xG 0.26–0.38 (41%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Phillips – Lee9:25
xG 0.07–0.09 (46%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Cowen13:14
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson18:26
xG 0.43–0.75 (36%)attempts 15–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).