Thu, Dec 22, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 03 | 013 | 115 | 131 |
| EDM | 220 | 29 | 02 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:57EDMJordan EberlePPUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 18:36EDMRyan SmythGWGAssists: Ladislav Smid, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–2
- P2 1:40EDMLennart PetrellSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 2:56EDMJordan EberleAssists: Corey Potter, Ryan Whitney · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–4
- P3 7:57MINDany HeatleyAssists: Matt Cullen, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.03 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:04MINWarren Peters: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:10EDMDarcy Hordichuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:37MINClayton Stoner: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:11MINJustin Falk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 19:48MINClayton Stoner: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P1 0:00EDMBen Eager: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:29MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:01EDMSam Gagner: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 2:50EDMLennart Petrell: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 2:50EDMLennart Petrell: Checking from behind5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestOrtmeyer – Staubitz – Powe6:37
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Taffe – Peters – Palmer5:39
xG 0.09–0.02 (82%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – Clutterbuck9:38
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Cullen – Heatley – Bouchard10:25
xG 0.75–1.32 (36%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Falk3:43
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Schultz – Falk3:54
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Schultz – Zidlicky9:41
xG 0.56–0.69 (45%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins9:14
xG 0.90–0.20 (82%)attempts 20–4goals 1–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Gagner9:29
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
- Hordichuk – Petrell – Lander3:09
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Belanger – Jones – Lander2:03
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Peckham9:08
xG 0.72–0.29 (71%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Smid11:07
xG 1.11–0.70 (61%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Smid – Petry2:07
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).