Fri, Dec 23, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 0, Boston Bruins 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 012 | 012 | 030 |
| BOS | 414 | 214 | 27 | 835 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:56BOSBrad MarchandSHGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Dennis Seidenberg · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 13:40BOSMilan LucicPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Nathan Horton · Snap, 0.57 xG0–2
- P1 18:31BOSBenoit PouliotAssists: Chris Kelly · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–3
- P1 19:02BOSDennis SeidenbergAssists: Joe Corvo, Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.01 xG0–4
- P2 3:50BOSGregory CampbellAssists: Brad Marchand, Andrew Ference · Snap, 0.08 xG0–5
- P2 15:50BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–6
- P3 1:53BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Zdeno Chara, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–7
- P3 10:53BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Tyler Seguin, Adam McQuaid · Snap, 0.06 xG0–8
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:42BOSGregory Campbell: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:51FLAEd Jovanovski: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:42BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:42FLAKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:43FLAKris Versteeg: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:23BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:42FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:16FLADmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:14FLAErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Santorelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBradley – Santorelli – Dadonov3:20
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Thomas – Matthias – Dadonov2:14
xG 0.06–0.13 (30%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bradley – Kopecky – Santorelli7:30
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Barch – Kennedy – Repik10:50
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Gudbranson7:31
xG 0.32–0.12 (72%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Weaver – Garrison3:23
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Ellerby2:11
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic10:53
xG 1.13–0.17 (87%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille10:06
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin9:40
xG 0.66–0.60 (52%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Kelly – Pouliot – Hamill10:38
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Seidenberg16:21
xG 1.19–0.39 (75%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Chara – Boychuk9:54
xG 0.62–0.16 (79%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Ference – Boychuk5:18
xG 0.36–0.03 (93%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).