Fri, Dec 23, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 2, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 011 | 211 | 230 |
| NYR | 08 | 27 | 29 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:18NYRDerek StepanAssists: Stu Bickel · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 15:29NYRRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Stu Bickel, Brandon Dubinsky · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 1:48NYRMarian GaborikGWGAssists: Anton Stralman, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 10:21PHIAndrej MeszarosPPAssists: Matt Carle, Scott Hartnell · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 14:04NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Dan Girardi, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–4
- P3 17:50PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Matt Read · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:38NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:22PHIWayne Simmonds: Holding2 min
- P1 16:07PHIMarc-Andre Bourdon: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:07NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:22PHIKimmo Timonen: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:47PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:54NYRBrad Richards: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:11PHITom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:11NYRBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:19NYRTim Erixon: Holding2 min
- P3 9:16NYRArtem Anisimov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:49PHIMax Talbot: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Talbot won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Simmonds – Read9:35
xG 0.82–0.58 (59%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Talbot – Sestito – Voracek6:00
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Zolnierczyk2:22
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux14:02
xG 0.55–0.50 (52%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Meszaros6:38
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn12:54
xG 0.75–0.44 (63%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Carle – Bourdon7:59
xG 0.65–0.34 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Mitchell – Dubinsky7:53
xG 0.67–0.01 (98%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Callahan – Hagelin11:08
xG 0.49–0.26 (66%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan9:48
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Rupp – Fedotenko – Prust4:06
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Del Zotto17:23
xG 1.63–0.94 (63%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
- Bickel – Erixon8:50
xG 0.09–0.22 (29%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh16:35
xG 0.74–1.00 (43%)attempts 16–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).