Fri, Dec 23, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
St. Louis Blues 3, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 05 | 27 | 16 | 318 |
| PHX | 07 | 110 | 19 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:12STLAlexander SteenAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 7:56PHXShane DoanAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 18:25STLMatt D'AgostiniAssists: Roman Polak, Evgeny Grachev · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 1:48STLJason ArnottGWGAssists: Kris Russell, Matt D'Agostini · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 13:39PHXKeith YandleAssists: Raffi Torres, Cal O'Reilly · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:41STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min
- P1 19:44PHXKeith Yandle: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:44PHXKeith Yandle: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:42STLDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:02STLKris Russell: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:51STLDavid Backes: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:07PHXDavid Schlemko: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00PHXRay Whitney: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Stewart10:54
xG 0.81–0.08 (91%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Langenbrunner – Nichol – Porter3:09
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Arnott – D'Agostini – Grachev3:48
xG 0.06–0.02 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Oshie – Berglund – Perron10:56
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pietrangelo15:54
xG 0.75–0.27 (73%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk10:52
xG 0.16–0.16 (51%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Jackman – Polak2:59
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestTorres – Chipchura – O'Reilly4:55
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Langkow – Doan – Korpikoski11:00
xG 0.59–0.55 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
- Whitney – Vrbata – O'Reilly2:15
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal8:23
xG 0.17–0.30 (37%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle11:09
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Klesla – Ekman-Larsson2:11
xG 0.08–0.08 (49%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Ekman-Larsson14:46
xG 0.13–0.29 (30%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).