Mon, Dec 26, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 4, Minnesota Wild 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 212 | 213 | 432 |
| MIN | 18 | 15 | 09 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:31MINPierre-Marc BouchardPPAssists: Dany Heatley, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 10:34COLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Matt Duchene · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 12:00MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Mikko Koivu, Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 18:58COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: David Van Der Gulik, TJ Galiardi · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 10:20COLJan HejdaGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, David Van Der Gulik · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 13:06COLTJ GaliardiAssists: Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:37COLShane O'Brien: Interference2 min
- P1 3:04MINNick Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:22COLCody McLeod: Checking from behind5 min · PPG
- P1 5:22COLCody McLeod: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 17:46COLJan Hejda: Holding2 min
- P2 4:14MINDany Heatley: Holding2 min
- P2 6:11COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:22MINNick Schultz: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:27MINDarroll Powe: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:52COLMatt Hunwick: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:13MINJarod Palmer: Interference2 min
- P3 10:33MINKyle Brodziak: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:33MINMatt Cullen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Galiardi – Malone3:52
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog5:25
xG 0.01–0.12 (7%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Winnik – Stastny – Duchene6:22
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Elliott7:35
xG 0.30–0.11 (72%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda9:59
xG 0.30–0.46 (40%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- O'Brien – Johnson10:41
xG 0.07–0.81 (8%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPeters – Johnson – Powe2:34
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – Powe4:30
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Clutterbuck8:24
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Peters – Staubitz – Gillies3:07
xG 0.09–0.07 (58%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Falk5:43
xG 0.54–0.11 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Falk – Scandella3:57
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Schultz – Lundin5:28
xG 0.22–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).