Mon, Dec 26, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 0, New York Rangers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 012 | 09 | 028 |
| NYR | 012 | 110 | 29 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:14NYRCarl HagelinGWGAssists: Ryan Callahan, Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.34 xG0–1
- P3 6:32NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Ryan Callahan · Snap, 0.24 xG0–2
- P3 17:32NYRMarian GaborikENAssists: Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.69 xG0–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:20NYIMicheal Haley: Instigator2 min
- P1 2:20NYRStu Bickel: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:20NYIMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:20NYIMicheal Haley: Misconduct10 min
- P1 3:53NYRBrad Richards: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:04NYRRyan Callahan: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:04NYRDan Girardi: Kneeing2 min
- P1 8:04NYIPA Parenteau: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:29NYIPA Parenteau: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:41NYRRyan Callahan: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:00NYIAndrew MacDonald: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00NYRMike Rupp: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Wallace – Martin4:27
xG 0.39–0.34 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bailey – Martin – Niederreiter5:15
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Grabner – Wallace2:44
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:58
xG 0.65–1.26 (34%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Streit – Jurcina14:01
xG 0.83–0.92 (47%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Mottau – Eaton10:11
xG 0.02–0.38 (5%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic18:55
xG 1.22–1.87 (39%)attempts 20–22goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Callahan – Hagelin10:35
xG 1.58–0.58 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Boyle – Mitchell – Dubinsky12:50
xG 1.07–0.45 (70%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan9:48
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Rupp – Fedotenko – Prust7:27
xG 0.09–0.77 (11%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Del Zotto11:54
xG 1.27–0.36 (78%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Stralman – McDonagh4:12
xG 0.89–0.57 (61%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Bickel – Erixon9:23
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).