Mon, Dec 26, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 011 | 02 | 212 | 225 |
| CAR | 110 | 213 | 111 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:13CARBrandon SutterSHAssists: Tim Gleason · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 7:01CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Tim Brent · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–2
- P2 17:13CARAnthony StewartGWGAssists: Andreas Nodl, Tim Brent · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P3 12:38NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Anton Volchenkov, Kurtis Foster · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 17:40NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: David Clarkson, Anton Volchenkov · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 19:30CARCam WardENUnassisted · Deflected, 0.44 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:40NJDRyan Carter: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:50CARTuomo Ruutu: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:53NJDRyan Carter: Boarding5 min
- P1 15:53CARBryan Allen: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:53NJDRyan Carter: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 17:13NJDZach Parise: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:52NJDMark Fayne: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Parise – Zajac8:18
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Zajac – Tedenby4:49
xG 0.07–0.06 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Sestito – Henrique3:07
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique4:38
xG 0.02–0.02 (47%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Taormina – Urbom9:32
xG 0.55–0.51 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Foster – Urbom3:05
xG 0.01–0.05 (13%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Foster13:40
xG 0.41–0.59 (41%)attempts 20–13goals 2–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Staal – Bowman11:13
xG 1.05–0.08 (93%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Ruutu – Jokinen11:20
xG 0.79–0.39 (67%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Sutter9:20
xG 0.35–0.33 (52%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Brent – Stewart – Nodl7:11
xG 0.05–0.20 (19%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – McBain12:17
xG 1.37–0.41 (77%)attempts 19–13goals 1–2
- Harrison – Faulk14:50
xG 0.72–0.36 (66%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Allen – Gleason3:06
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).