Mon, Dec 26, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Anaheim Ducks 3, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 16 | 29 | 08 | 323 |
| SJS | 19 | 111 | 018 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:27ANALuca SbisaAssists: George Parros, Nick Bonino · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 19:33SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 3:42ANABobby RyanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 7:13SJSJamie McGinnAssists: Justin Braun, Colin White · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 12:46ANAAndrew CoglianoGWGAssists: Matt Beleskey, Andrew Gordon · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:29ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:29SJSFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:05SJSBenn Ferriero: Holding2 min
- P3 6:56SJSJamie McGinn: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:26ANACorey Perry: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:21ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cogliano won the faceoff against Handzus
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Selanne – Ryan – Bonino12:07
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Parros – Jacques – Pelley6:11
xG 0.06–0.29 (18%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Hagman – Getzlaf – Perry13:11
xG 0.37–0.65 (36%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Gordon – Cogliano – Beleskey11:44
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Fowler17:05
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
- Lydman – Visnovsky16:17
xG 0.47–0.84 (36%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Brookbank – Sbisa15:27
xG 0.20–0.68 (23%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Clowe – Couture10:57
xG 0.90–0.36 (71%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Ferriero8:32
xG 0.70–0.16 (81%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Winchester – Desjardins – McLaren5:15
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Handzus – Mitchell – McGinn5:06
xG 0.11–0.07 (63%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Vlasic15:22
xG 0.89–0.24 (79%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Braun – Demers2:03
xG 0.20–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Burns – Demers12:52
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).