Tue, Dec 27, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Calgary Flames 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 09 | 19 | 03 | 1 | 226 |
| CBJ | 07 | 115 | 03 | 03 | 0 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:02CBJDerick BrassardAssists: Mark Letestu, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 3:06CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Olli Jokinen, Derek Smith · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Mark Letestu stopped
- 2. CGY Jarome Iginla scored
- 3. CBJ Rick Nash stopped
- 4. CGY Curtis Glencross stopped
- 5. CBJ James Wisniewski stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:33CGYCory Sarich: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:33CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:13CBJR.J. Umberger: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:06CGYCurtis Glencross: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 3:35CBJR.J. Umberger: Interference2 min
- P2 6:53CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:59CGYCory Sarich: Elbowing2 min
- P2 17:23CGYRene Bourque: Interference2 min
- P3 2:12CBJDerek MacKenzie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 5:00CGYJay Bouwmeester: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Morrison
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Bourque – Backlund10:23
xG 0.40–0.05 (88%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Comeau – Byron – Horak5:05
xG 0.06–0.07 (48%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Morrison – Kostopoulos – Jackman7:26
xG 0.07–0.29 (20%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Glencross12:51
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Smith15:31
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Brodie2:03
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hannan – Bouwmeester2:05
xG 0.06–0.07 (45%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Boll – Brassard7:11
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Umberger – Dorsett9:14
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Nash – Carter – Johansen10:06
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Prospal – Vermette – Letestu7:51
xG 0.04–0.15 (22%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Clitsome2:50
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Nikitin14:20
xG 0.20–0.19 (52%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Methot – Clitsome13:28
xG 0.15–0.19 (43%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).