Tue, Dec 27, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 6, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 35 | 216 | 17 | 628 |
| OTT | 113 | 116 | 06 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:42OTTZack SmithAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Colin Greening · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 5:08MTLLars EllerSHAssists: Mathieu Darche, Raphael Diaz · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 12:39MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Mathieu Darche, Raphael Diaz · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
- P1 15:25MTLMichael CammalleriGWGAssists: Louis Leblanc, Raphael Diaz · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–1
- P2 2:03MTLLouis LeblancAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Hal Gill · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P2 5:53MTLP.K. SubbanAssists: Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–1
- P2 6:49OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Milan Michalek, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 14:58MTLErik ColePPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.44 xG6–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:38MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:31OTTBrian Lee: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:31MTLMax Pacioretty: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:16MTLLouis Leblanc: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:16OTTSergei Gonchar: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:55OTTBobby Butler: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:30MTLHal Gill: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:30MTLTravis Moen: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:30OTTNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:34MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:11OTTFilip Kuba: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:48OTTZack Smith: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:34OTTNick Foligno: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Desharnais – Leblanc8:47
xG 0.52–0.09 (85%)attempts 6–10goals 2–0
- Darche – Nokelainen – Blunden7:05
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Cole – Pacioretty – Eller9:10
xG 0.54–0.90 (37%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Moen – Plekanec – Kostitsyn12:45
xG 0.05–0.64 (7%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Diaz11:34
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Kaberle – Emelin11:12
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban16:58
xG 0.63–0.69 (48%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Spezza – Michalek10:00
xG 0.52–0.06 (90%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith7:29
xG 0.55–0.43 (57%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Greening2:43
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Konopka – Daugavins – Condra3:17
xG 0.02–0.06 (22%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Cowen10:47
xG 0.92–0.47 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
- Kuba – Karlsson13:43
xG 0.46–0.09 (83%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Carkner – Lee6:46
xG 0.23–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).