Tue, Dec 27, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
St. Louis Blues 2, Detroit Red Wings 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 110 | 118 | 03 | 231 |
| DET | 07 | 112 | 213 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:51STLMatt D'AgostiniPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Jason Arnott · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 13:08STLAlexander SteenAssists: Jason Arnott, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–0
- P2 18:57DETNicklas LidstromPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Ian White · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 11:19DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Ian White, Todd Bertuzzi · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 12:15DETNiklas KronwallGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:12DETDarren Helm: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 8:57DETHenrik Zetterberg: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:57STLB.J. Crombeen: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:27DETDaniel Cleary: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:27STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:53DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:57DETNicklas Lidstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:12STLMatt D'Agostini: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:25STLMatt D'Agostini: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:28STLKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:28DETJohan Franzen: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:04STLJason Arnott: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Porter – D'Agostini7:54
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Stewart14:21
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Nichol – Crombeen – Cracknell5:40
xG 0.08–0.11 (43%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Berglund – Perron – Grachev10:36
xG 0.11–0.46 (19%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Polak4:38
xG 0.36–0.05 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Pietrangelo4:46
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Polak8:06
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen9:54
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Abdelkader – Emmerton – Andersson4:45
xG 0.06–0.08 (42%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Cleary – Miller – Helm7:02
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler12:54
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Kronwall13:05
xG 0.37–0.26 (59%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Commodore – Ericsson11:01
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – White16:14
xG 0.32–0.63 (34%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).