Tue, Dec 27, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 4, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 16 | 212 | 18 | 426 |
| COL | 011 | 014 | 18 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:37WPGEvander KaneAssists: Blake Wheeler, Alexander Burmistrov · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 1:21WPGTim StapletonPPGWGAssists: Andrew Ladd, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 14:52WPGEvander KaneAssists: Chris Thorburn, Tim Stapleton · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 3:41WPGJim SlaterAssists: Tanner Glass · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–0
- P3 14:48COLKevin PorterAssists: David Van Der Gulik, Cody McLeod · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P2 0:40COLRyan O'Byrne: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:38WPGMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:38COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:29WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:58COLShane O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:58WPGTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hejda won the faceoff against Wheeler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Kane – Burmistrov11:15
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Stapleton – Kane2:33
xG 0.05–0.02 (76%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Miettinen – Slater – Glass8:26
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Fehr – Stapleton8:10
xG 0.05–0.22 (19%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Bogosian17:31
xG 0.49–0.35 (59%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Stuart – Flood12:32
xG 0.57–0.81 (41%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Enstrom17:57
xG 0.28–1.33 (17%)attempts 9–22goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Stastny – Duchene14:10
xG 1.32–0.53 (71%)attempts 24–9goals 0–0
- Van Der Gulik – Porter – McLeod6:15
xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- McClement – Galiardi – Malone12:03
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog14:28
xG 0.47–0.49 (49%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Elliott14:05
xG 1.04–0.30 (77%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Johnson6:56
xG 0.38–0.16 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Johnson9:19
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 13–6goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).