Wed, Dec 28, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 1, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 110 | 06 | 123 |
| NJD | 18 | 29 | 06 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:52NJDPetr SykoraAssists: Patrik Elias, Martin Brodeur · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 1:26NJDPetr SykoraGWGAssists: Patrik Elias, Anton Volchenkov · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 6:55NJDZach PariseAssists: Mark Fayne, Adam Henrique · Tip-in, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 7:41BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Jordan Leopold, Drew Stafford · Snap, 0.24 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:44BUFZack Kassian: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 14:20NJDZach Parise: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:27BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:12NJDEric Boulton: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:12NJDEric Boulton: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:12BUFCody McCormick: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:12BUFPaul Gaustad: Misconduct10 min
- P2 7:12BUFPatrick Kaleta: Misconduct10 min
- P2 7:12NJDCam Janssen: Misconduct10 min
- P2 7:12NJDBryce Salvador: Misconduct10 min
- P2 11:42NJDPetr Sykora: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:51NJDPetr Sykora: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEllis – Adam – Kassian10:33
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Gaustad – McCormick – Kaleta5:08
xG 0.09–0.14 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Boyes – Roy – Stafford13:52
xG 0.15–0.23 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Hecht – Pominville – Vanek12:32
xG 0.46–0.66 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Regehr – Leopold3:41
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – McNabb14:39
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Leopold – Weber11:22
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Zajac – Sestito5:51
xG 0.21–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus11:30
xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 6–13goals 2–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique12:50
xG 0.18–0.25 (42%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Clarkson – Zajac – Tedenby5:50
xG 0.02–0.09 (16%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Taormina16:40
xG 0.93–0.37 (71%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Volchenkov – Foster10:45
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Larsson2:05
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).