Wed, Dec 28, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Rangers 1, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 09 | 015 | 132 |
| WSH | 19 | 28 | 16 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:18WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Jeff Halpern · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–1
- P1 17:16NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Ryan Callahan · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 10:24WSHTroy BrouwerGWGAssists: John Carlson · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 13:02WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 17:25WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Karl Alzner · Slap, 0.04 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:56WSHKarl Alzner: Holding2 min
- P1 14:40WSHJohn Erskine: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:19NYRStu Bickel: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:20WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:22NYRMarian Gaborik: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:36WSHDennis Wideman: Elbowing2 min
- P3 13:46WSHTroy Brouwer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Anisimov – Stepan11:15
xG 0.64–0.13 (84%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Rupp – Fedotenko – Prust4:52
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Boyle – Mitchell – Dubinsky9:46
xG 0.33–0.58 (36%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Richards – Callahan – Hagelin6:44
xG 0.20–0.78 (21%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Bickel8:42
xG 0.39–0.17 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Girardi – McDonagh18:24
xG 0.60–0.68 (47%)attempts 24–12goals 1–1
- Stralman – McDonagh2:14
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Brouwer – Johansson9:06
xG 0.94–0.08 (92%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Semin – Ovechkin – Backstrom12:33
xG 0.67–0.45 (60%)attempts 11–19goals 2–0
- Knuble – Hendricks – Beagle3:59
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Laich9:22
xG 0.04–0.50 (8%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Orlov3:07
xG 0.36–0.10 (79%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Hamrlik – Wideman12:49
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson13:56
xG 0.91–0.80 (53%)attempts 13–15goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).